Scenario Analysis

Artwork by David Frazer

Introducing our Scenario Analysis app, available as a Tier 1 product (costing less than US$1) from Apple and Google stores.

Screen 1 Scenarios

Field 1 “Assets

Prompt “Compile a list of assets. Consider significant operational processes, activities, and the resources upon which they rely including people, facilities, machinery, equipment, infrastructure (including premises), technology (including plant and equipment), data, and proprietary information (digital and analog), supply chain (supplies and suppliers), raw materials, finished goods, and information technology.”

(Note: This flexible data entry field allows the user to enter “Assets” – singly or as a group. The user can group assets together as necessary to reduce the total number of “Assets” listed, but should use a separate entry for each of those assets that are highly valued or critical.)

Field 2


For each asset, list hazards that could cause an impact. Use the list of Hazards from NFPA 1600 while still allowing other hazards to be added.


For each hazard allow the following – subtitle, descriptive text and up to three images

(2.1) Past recurrence How many events which could have impacted your operation have occurred in the last 100 years?

(2.2) Future likelihood of occurrence Is frequency increasing?

(2.3) Speed of onset – or warning time How quickly might it be upon us?

(2.4) Magnitude How big might it be?

(2.5) Impact threshold How long before significant operational and/or financial impact will occur?

• Less than 1 hour

• Between 1 hour and 8 hours

• Between 8 hours and 24 hours

• Between 24 hours and 72 hours

• More than 72 hours

• More than 1 week

• More than 1 month

(2.6) Point in time Does significance vary at different times of the day month year. Identify point in time when interruption would have greater impact (e.g., season, end of month/quarter, etc.)

(2.7) Potential area of coverage What is the area of spatial impact? Are there secondary, knock on effects into other things you rely on (such as supply chains)?

(2.8) Perception What is the level of fear or dread invoked by this hazard in the minds and beliefs of people you rely on?

Field 3

Scenario Significance Estimate significance of the scenarios on a scale of “L” for low, “M” for medium and “H” for high. Use a seven point slider labeled “Scenario Significance” (Reference ‘1-7 Likert Scale’, after Rensis Likert, 1932).

Screen 2 – “Analyze Impacts”

Prompt – “As you analyze potential impacts, identify any vulnerabilities or weaknesses that would make it susceptible to loss”.

Rate each of the impact areas using a seven point slider. Includes a notes section and up to three images under each slider.

Field 1 Operational Impacts

Considerations (customize for your business)

• Lost sales and income

• Negative cash flow resulting from delayed sales or income

• Increased expenses (e.g., overtime labor, outsourcing, expediting costs, etc.)

• Repairs or reinstatement

• Regulatory fines

• Contractual penalties or loss of contractual bonuses

• Customer dissatisfaction or defection

• Delay executing business plan or strategic initiative

Field 2 Financial Impact

Field 3 “Entity

Prompt “In the note under the slider quantifying operational impacts in financial terms.”

Prompt “Analyze regulatory, contractual, brand, image, and reputation impacts”.

Field 4 “Overall Risk Rating

The risk dial combines the rating for “scenario significance” and the highest rating from “analyze impacts”. Any HIGH risk will trigger the need for an action plan.

Screen 3 Action Plan

“Carefully review scenarios with potential impacts rated as “moderate” or “high.” What actions can you take to prevent the scenario or to reduce the potential impacts?”

Includes a link to our free Disaster Management Decision Maker app with the note “Select an appropriate business continuity software tool to support your resilience” under the image as a hyperlink.

Action Plan Structure

Screen 4 Communicating and Reporting

PDFs – Default Report will include all fields. Allows tailoring of the communication and reporting structure.

Author: John Salter Consulting Services

John Salter - owner of John Salter Consulting Services - specialising in the facilitation of risk-based capability reviews; needs-based training; business continuity planning; crisis management exercises; and organisational debriefing. Recognised for “preventing disasters, or where that is not possible, reducing the potential for harm” Ref: Barrister H Selby, Inquest Handbook, 1998. Distracted by golf, camping, fishing, reading, red wine, movies and theatre.

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