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- Risk @ Interfaces
On the edge. On the boundary. At the interface.
Between the land and the sea. 
Between the burbs and the bush. 
Our “interface” this morning. 
Between the hills and the houses
“What If?” is a powerful question.
Scenario Analysis helps you to make better decisions by challenging your assumptions about the future. Exploring a range of alternative scenarios allows you to identify potential risks and plan how you will counteract or mitigate their impact – as well as maximising opportunities.
Available NOW! 
Opening Screen 
Context input – assets and hazards 
Hazard Profile 
Impact Analysis 
Planning for Operability 
Scenario Analysis will be available as a Tier 1 app for less than $1 - When should you invest in disaster management?
Purists … say you ought to have already set it up “yesterday”.
Pragmatists … say you ought to do it “whenever you’re ready”.
Whenever you decide, there are some things to consider.
1. How are you at risk – How are you vulnerable? 
2. Start with – and focus on – what you care about 
3. Consider using a criteria-based decision making approach when determining the most appropriate planning solution for you.
Use our free Disaster Management Decision Maker App to compare AgileBCP to any of your other options. 
Criteria applied in our free Disaster Management Decision Maker app 
Jump onto AgileBCP as early as you want – or as late as you need to! 
Underpinned by an approach which has been effective for decades. 
Bottom line: Start building your capabilities for less than A$100 - Couldn’t make this up!
My favourite “risk management errors” story today comes out of the Perth Mint.
Greed, arrogance and incompetence characterise a range of activities over years.
https://apple.news/AmOJXFdVNQeW4MxBpK6mHTQ
- Scenario Analysis
Artwork by David Frazer http://www.dfrazer.com Introducing our Scenario Analysis app, available as a Tier 1 product (costing less than US$1) from Apple and Google stores.
Screen 1 Scenarios
Field 1 “Assets”
Prompt “Compile a list of assets. Consider significant operational processes, activities, and the resources upon which they rely including people, facilities, machinery, equipment, infrastructure (including premises), technology (including plant and equipment), data, and proprietary information (digital and analog), supply chain (supplies and suppliers), raw materials, finished goods, and information technology.”
(Note: This flexible data entry field allows the user to enter “Assets” – singly or as a group. The user can group assets together as necessary to reduce the total number of “Assets” listed, but should use a separate entry for each of those assets that are highly valued or critical.)
Field 2
“ Hazards”
For each asset, list hazards that could cause an impact. Use the list of Hazards from NFPA 1600 while still allowing other hazards to be added.
Subfields.
For each hazard allow the following – subtitle, descriptive text and up to three images
(2.1) Past recurrence How many events which could have impacted your operation have occurred in the last 100 years?
(2.2) Future likelihood of occurrence Is frequency increasing?
(2.3) Speed of onset – or warning time How quickly might it be upon us?
(2.4) Magnitude How big might it be?
(2.5) Impact threshold How long before significant operational and/or financial impact will occur?
• Less than 1 hour
• Between 1 hour and 8 hours
• Between 8 hours and 24 hours
• Between 24 hours and 72 hours
• More than 72 hours
• More than 1 week
• More than 1 month
(2.6) Point in time Does significance vary at different times of the day month year. Identify point in time when interruption would have greater impact (e.g., season, end of month/quarter, etc.)
(2.7) Potential area of coverage What is the area of spatial impact? Are there secondary, knock on effects into other things you rely on (such as supply chains)?
(2.8) Perception What is the level of fear or dread invoked by this hazard in the minds and beliefs of people you rely on?
Field 3
Scenario Significance Estimate significance of the scenarios on a scale of “L” for low, “M” for medium and “H” for high. Use a seven point slider labeled “Scenario Significance” (Reference ‘1-7 Likert Scale’, after Rensis Likert, 1932).
Screen 2 – “Analyze Impacts”
Prompt – “As you analyze potential impacts, identify any vulnerabilities or weaknesses that would make it susceptible to loss”.
Rate each of the impact areas using a seven point slider. Includes a notes section and up to three images under each slider.
Field 1 Operational Impacts
Considerations (customize for your business)
• Lost sales and income
• Negative cash flow resulting from delayed sales or income
• Increased expenses (e.g., overtime labor, outsourcing, expediting costs, etc.)
• Repairs or reinstatement
• Regulatory fines
• Contractual penalties or loss of contractual bonuses
• Customer dissatisfaction or defection
• Delay executing business plan or strategic initiative
Field 2 Financial Impact
Field 3 “Entity”
Prompt “In the note under the slider quantifying operational impacts in financial terms.”
Prompt “Analyze regulatory, contractual, brand, image, and reputation impacts”.
Field 4 “Overall Risk Rating”
The risk dial combines the rating for “scenario significance” and the highest rating from “analyze impacts”. Any HIGH risk will trigger the need for an action plan.
Screen 3 Action Plan
“Carefully review scenarios with potential impacts rated as “moderate” or “high.” What actions can you take to prevent the scenario or to reduce the potential impacts?”
Includes a link to our free Disaster Management Decision Maker app with the note “Select an appropriate business continuity software tool to support your resilience” under the image as a hyperlink.
Action Plan Structure
Screen 4 Communicating and Reporting
PDFs – Default Report will include all fields. Allows tailoring of the communication and reporting structure.
- AgileBCP Consulting Opportunities
Opportunity
AgileBCP Pty Ltd is pleased to announce the global availability of our ongoing commission arrangements for consultants who facilitate subscriptions to our Agile Business Continuity Software as a Service Platform.Why AgileBCP Software as a Service
What differentiates our globally available SaaS is alignment with “Best Practices” harmonized with International Standards.
What distinguishes the approach as a leader in the field is that it is risk-based – focusing on the vulnerability of the things you care about before a disaster – not only on supporting your nimble reaction to the impacts of extreme events – therefore opening up prevention and preparedness opportunities.
Registration
We invite interested parties to provide us with their details. Email consulting@agilebcp.com – we will then add your details to the AgileBCP listing on our sites.Methodology
A range of resources is available from across our sites to support facilitators.
http://www.disasterresilience.com
http://www.businesshazards.com
Other facilitation tools include a range of John Salter’s Apple and Android apps to profile clients’ risk and resilience.
Workshops – you may also use our resources to deliver workshops – free or on a fee basis – on platforms of your choice (for example – http://www.eventbookings.com – which supports virtual or on-site)If you determine to use a subscription to promote and develop solutions for potential clients, we will support you with a 50% rebate on your preferred demonstration model (which is generally used by you to model and populate potential client data).
A suitable version to facilitate a small team of stakeholder clients (such as their risk management team, or their executives) is the “up to five users” model. In other contexts, it is more appropriate to facilitate a group of up to twenty users (covering crucial activities supporting “must deliver” products and services). All pricing is in Australian dollars.
Remuneration
The rate – as ongoing commissions – is generously set at 30% of facilitated subscriptions.Insurances
All independent freelancers will be responsible to carry own indemnities (which are generally inexpensive as they cover training and facilitation). - Shut happens
The hospitality industry invests heavily on having bumper weekends. They’re the days everyone is “out and about”.
Except … when you can’t be “up and at em”.
And recently it was like that for many popular venues in our area.
There might be lessons for the day – there might be lessons from the day. Especially if there is an opportunity to reflect on your approach to business continuity and disruption more broadly! Consider the approach outlined below:
Consider leveraging a highly reputed international reference – a “gold standard”! 
Recently, it was hazard number 46. Next week … it might be … 
Consider how agile your business is. Use a simple, useful “heuristic”. The 4Ps.
Try the agile approach to business continuity by using our free App
A free app introducing Business Continuity 
Try our comprehensive coverage of careabouts – for less than $5 
Explore our Software as a Service - Revisiting Black Swans
We offer a range of risk based apps 
Available on iOS and Android 
- Disaster Management Workshop – a business perspective.
Adelaide, Monday 27 Feb, 9am -11am, $85
Discount Coupon code
EB890606
https://www.eventbookings.com/b/event/agile-business-continuity-workshop-adelaide
Applying an internationally endorsed approach 
Where are you on the recovery line? 
Take this opportunity to build in preventions - Poor decision making
Yet another example of poor decision making featured in the newspaper this morning.
“Minor” but illustrative it shows a failure to take responsibility.
OughtWe is our free decision maker app – check it out.
- Risk Trends
Headlines reflect a disarming lack of confidence. 
In this Blog I have selected some key themes from the Insight Report. Illustrating them with images from the report. 
Extreme events and uncertainties continue to dominate the landscape. 
Central to context is the question of “what do we value?” Central to vulnerabilities are supply chains. 
Highlights in the “top right” quadrant 
Yes, No, and Maybe 
With enhanced foresight being a ‘must-have’ The Frameworks have remained robust for decades At the ground level, we offer apps – many free, some up to $5 – which can go a long way to support you asking the right questions. 
For those who can make it for a Face-to-Face, Adelaide 27 Feb awaits
John Salter & Associates Consulting Services 